Dubai to London named world’s busiest international air route in early 2021

According to aviation analytics firm OAG, a total of 190,365 seats were scheduled in the first week of 2021 on the route, putting it ahead of Cairo to Jeddah (154,337) and Orlando to San Juan (151.916).

OAG said the Dubai-Heathrow route had benefitted from the UK’s decision to remove the UAE from its quarantine list last month but cautioned that figures going forward would be impacted by the new coronavirus lockdown announced by Britain last week.

Experts have told Arabian Business that the third national lockdown could deliver a hard blow for airlines that serve the UK–UAE route.

During the lockdown period, which is likely to continue until at least March, only essential trips are permitted, including travelling abroad. Holidays are currently off-limits for most Britons, and the new restrictions will entail wider travel curbs.

The latest travel restrictions are set to “pummel” British Airways, Emirates and Etihad, according to Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at London-based StratAero aviation consulting.

“For UAE airlines, the UK–UAE route was far and away the most popular, profitable and high-frequency route. Now that will have to change until March 2021 at least, if not longer,” said Ahmad.

Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at London-based StratAero aviation consulting

The introduction of pre-departure testing of travellers inbound to the UK as part of a toughening of border controls will also dampen travel.

Despite initial optimum for the UK-UAE air traffic route in the first half of November, coinciding with the addition of the UAE to the UK’s list of quarantine-free countries – where flight bookings rose to over 50 percent of the levels in the equivalent period in 2019 – reservations have since fallen.

Mark D Martin, founder and CEO of aviation analysis firm Martin Consulting, said the impact of the British lockdown is expected to be “significant” because the UK and the UAE work closely together in terms of tourism, human capital and industrial resourcing.

“Going by revenue and top line income from UK and UAE routes alone, we’re expecting the revenue deficit from UK routes to be a minimum of $500 million for Emirates alone from both passenger and cargo,” Martin said.

London Heathrow

Since grounding its entire fleet in late March due to the global coronavirus lockdown, Emirates has gradually announced flights to soak up increased demand. Emirates increased its twice-daily Dubai-London A380 and once daily Boeing 777 flights to four daily A380 services from November 27.

However, Ahmad said frequencies would almost certainly be “slashed” in the next few weeks given dwindling demand on the route.

OAG’s latest figures also revealed that the Saudi air route between Jeddah and Riyadh was the ninth busiest domestic route in the world in the first week of January with 548,226 seats although this was almost half that of the busiest domestic route in South Korea.