Incoming president Trump’s policy agenda on tariffs and taxes looms over the Fed’s outlook, though Fed chair Powell called it “premature” to assess any impacts
US economy
Latest in US economy
economic outlook
JPMorgan Private Bank sees US rates to plunge to 3.5% by 2026 in growth push
The bank identified capital investment as a key megatrend for 2025, driven by artificial intelligence, power infrastructure, and security needs
inflation
US Fed Chair Powell says no need to hurry rate cuts with economy strong
Powell’s remarks prompted traders to pare back expectations for a December rate cut
inflation
US Fed seen delivering 25 bps cut next month after inflation data
The increased speculation comes after a government report showed inflation last month was a bit firmer than expected
inflation
US inflation reaches lowest point since February 2021
Consumer prices rose just 2.4% in September from a year earlier, down from 2.5% in August
economic outlook
US economy posts strong GDP growth in April-June quarter at 3%
Consumer spending, the primary driver of the economy, grew last quarter at a 2.8% pace, down slightly from the 2.9% rate that the government had previously estimated
unemployment
US weekly jobless claims make another surprise fall
The data for last week indicates a four-month low, suggesting that the US labour market remained fairly healthy
Donald Trump
Donald Trump promises slew of tax breaks which even his advisors can’t decode
The Republican presidential candidate is expected to make a speech on Tuesday in Georgia to outline his vision to use tax breaks and other incentives to bolster US manufacturing
Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris said to release new economic proposals this week on US wealth creation ahead of presidential election
The move comes amidst undecided voters, including in swing states, seeking for more information about how Harris would help them economically if she were elected president in November
job market
US jobless claims fall to 4-month low, indicating strong job growth amid rate cuts
The latest unemployment data also offers confirmation that the US economy continued to expand in the third quarter
economic outlook
US Fed’s bold 50bps cut a signal to get ahead of the curve, cushion the economy against potential shocks: Experts
A section of market participants, however, sees the aggressive easing as a sign of panic, potentially fuelling volatility and uncertainty in financial markets
Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve cuts rate by half a point, focusses on job growth
US Federal Reserve announces first rate cut in more than four years and seen as a step towards fostering the job market
economic slowdown
Is a recession coming in 2025?
Recessions in major economies could reduce oil demand, potentially leading to economic uncertainties in GCC nations, experts warn
interest rates
US manufacturing PMI rebounds slightly to 47.2 in August amid mixed signals
The moderate uptick in factory productions in several industries last month comes
consumer confidence
US consumer confidence inches up in August in yet another data favouring an immediate rate cut
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased to 103.3 this month, the highest level since February, from an upwardly revised 101.9 in July
inflation
US Fed policymakers push for interest rate cuts as job market cools
The US central bank is widely expected to begin reducing its benchmark policy rate at its upcoming meeting on September 17-18
unemployment
US retail sales perk up in July; unemployment claims fall further by 7,000 last week
The latest set of positive economic data further eased recessionary fears in the world’s largest economy