A drop in CO2 emissions has been paraded as the silver lining of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the truth is slightly more complicated.
It is true that carbon emissions have fallen thanks to lockdowns which have neutralized air travel and transport in general, and slowdowns in industry. Carbon Monitor reports that globally, CO2 emissions have dropped 6.3% compared to 2019.
But this likely is not the start of a downward trend in emissions, and the overall rise in greenhouse gas concentration has only slowed marginally, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
“The lockdown-related fall in emissions is just a tiny blip on the long-term graph. We need a sustained flattening of the curve,” says WMO secretary general, Prof Petteri Taalas.
The emissions drop is not a long-term solution. It’s not even a solution at all—it’s a short-term side effect of a global health and economic crisis. Assuming that it would be enough to face climate change ignores the scale of the issue and does not account for other important factors in the energy transition, like energy efficiency.
The current drop in emissions is also just not enough, even if it were to be sustained. In a July 2020 interview with Oil & Gas Middle East, APICORP Chief Economist Dr. Leila Benali put it in context: “We have learned that you can lock down 40% of the world’s population for weeks and you can have 1.5 billion students home-schooled and you will still not be able to reach the Paris targets… The issue of emissions and climate change has to be taken much more seriously than it has been in the past if we are to reach the Paris climate goals.”
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency found that energy intensity would improve by only 0.8% in 2020, half the rate of 2019 (1.6%) and 2018 (1.5%).
“It is especially worrying because energy efficiency delivers more than 40% of the reduction in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions over the next 20 years in the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario, which shows how to put the world on track to achieve international climate and energy goals in full,” the IEA report notes.
With economic growth expected to drop by 4.6% in 2020, investments in energy-efficient buildings, equipment and vehicles are also forecast to fall, and technical efficiency improvements are being delayed due to the pandemic.
Energy efficiency involves everything from using LED lightbulbs at home to efficient HVAC systems in industrial plants. Simply put, if we use less power, or use it more efficiently, we emit lower amounts of greenhouse gases. The World Economic Forum wrote in 2019 that investing in energy efficiency could reduce demand for electricity and therefore speed up the decommissioning of coal and fossil fuel plants.
The energy transition is multi-faceted, and will require a concerted, intentional and strategic effort from all key players if the world is even going to attempt to reach the Paris climate goals. Lower emissions as a by-product of a global health and economic crisis does not meet any of that criteria.
The economic conditions this year are actually an obstacle to a real energy transition plan, which will require massive investments into multiple segments and the participation of all stakeholders (oil and gas companies included).
While it does feel good to celebrate good news in a year which has been turbulent at the best of times, now is not the time to be complacent—there is still plenty of work to be done to develop a more sustainable energy industry.
Carla Sertin, Group Editor, Energy & Construction
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