What would a Trump win mean for the Middle East?

As the 2024 US presidential race enters its final stretch, with Vice President Kamala Harris now leading the Democratic ticket following President Biden’s unexpected withdrawal, the Middle East watches closely. Trump’s unique brand of foreign policy, characterised by transactional diplomacy and a focus on domestic interests, could have far-reaching implications for regional stability, economic relationships, and longstanding conflicts if he were to secure a second term.

“Unlike most of the US Presidents, Donald Trump’s foreign policy focuses on global restraint, retrenchment, and positioning America first,” said Monika Bickauskaite-Aleliune, Director of Public Affairs at Key Elements Group. This distinct approach, should Trump win, would likely lead to a continuation of policies from his first term, with some key areas of focus.

The 2024 US presidential race is heating up, with just three months left until the new president is elected.

Here’s a look at what a Trump win could mean for the region, which is experiencing renewed volatility in light of the war in Gaza among other regional developments.

The Abraham Accords

One of Trump’s most significant foreign policy achievements during his first term was the Abraham Accords in 2020, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab countries including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. These agreements consisted of a general declaration alongside bilateral accords which symbolised a historic shift in diplomatic relations for the region.

Bickauskaite-Aleliune suggested that a second Trump administration would likely seek to build on this initiative. “Trump would be inclined to continue this initiative, aiming to strengthen diplomatic relations between Israel and more countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia.”

This push for further normalisation could have far-reaching implications for regional dynamics.

“The US would probably increase its efforts at expanding the Abraham Accords,” said Omar Al Ubaydli, President of the Bahrain Economists Society.

However, given recent developments in Gaza, it remains unclear whether other nations will be on board to normalise ties with Israel if Trump were to expand it.

A harder line on Iran

Trump’s approach to Iran is expected to be markedly different from the current administration’s. Bickauskaite-Aleliune predicts that “Trump would express his full support for Israel and would pursue a more confrontational policy towards Iran by tightening sanctions and making sure that the 2015 nuclear deal is never revived.”

This hardline stance could potentially increase tensions in the region, but it may also align with the interests of US allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, who view Iran as a significant threat.

During his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, in May 2018. He argued that the deal was not strict enough and imposed “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran.

This move was met with mixed reactions internationally, with European allies attempting to salvage the agreement. A return to this hardline approach could reignite tensions and potentially lead to increased regional instability.

Economic implications: Trade wars and energy policy

Trump’s economic policies could have significant ramifications for the Middle East, experts believe.

“If elected for a second term, Trump is likely to continue [steering] the US away from globalisation,” said Bickauskaite-Aleliune. This could lead to a trade war with China.

“Given that the Middle East has significant trading links with the US, if Trump is elected, the region’s growth forecasts may be revised downward.”

However, Trump’s energy policies could potentially benefit the region. Under Project 2025, an initiative to promote conservative policy proposals under four pillars – policy agenda, personnel database, training, and a 180-day playbook, the new administration promises to bring down energy prices for Americans and boost domestic production.

This could, in turn, lead to energy price stability, which Bickauskaite-Aleliune believes will be “beneficial to the Middle East.”

A shift towards Isolationism?

Both experts suggest that a Trump presidency might lead to a more isolationist US foreign policy.

“He would likely pursue an isolationist foreign policy that includes the MENA region. That would translate to a potential decrease in US commitments to security in the region,” said Al Ubaydli.

However, this potential retreat raises concerns about power vacuums in the region. According to Al Ubaydli, the main challenge is that while the US wants to pursue an isolationist policy, it also doesn’t want the “power vacuum it leaves to be filled by its geopolitical rivals, namely China and Russia.”

“This makes its foreign policy a delicate balancing act,” he added.

Middle East in favour of Trump?

Bickauskaite-Aleliune suggests that many countries in the Middle East might prefer a Trump victory.

“Trump took a rather realist approach, leaving domestic policy to the leaders of the countries in the Middle East, not asking them to change their political system, in that way building closer relations with such countries as Saudi Arabia. Hence, most countries in the Middle East favour Trump’s victory.”

However, challenges remain regardless of who occupies the White House.

Bickauskaite-Aleliune highlighted ongoing issues such as the situation in Gaza, an increasingly confrontational Iran, and the threat of foreign interference and disinformation campaigns in the region.

The ongoing conflict in Gaza, which erupted in October 2023, has significantly altered regional dynamics. The humanitarian crisis and political fallout from this conflict will likely be a key issue for any incoming US administration. Additionally, the growing influence of Russia and China in the region, particularly through economic and military partnerships, presents a complex challenge for US policymakers.

The Israel-Palestine conflict

While Trump’s approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict during his first term was seen as heavily favouring Israel, Al Ubaydli suggests a bold potential move: “The US has the ability to unilaterally secure a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Doing so would greatly serve regional interests and its own.”

The two-state solution envisions an independent State of Palestine alongside the State of Israel, west of the Jordan River. This concept has been the bedrock of most peace plans proposed by the international community for decades.

However, its implementation has been hindered by various factors, including disagreements over borders, the status of Jerusalem, and the right of return for Palestinian refugees. Trump’s first term saw a departure from this long-standing US policy, with moves such as recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and proposing a peace plan that was widely viewed as favoring Israeli interests. A potential shift back towards actively pursuing a two-state solution would mark a significant change in US policy in the region.

Whether Trump would consider such a move in a second term remains to be seen.

As the US presidential race unfolds, the Middle East watches with keen interest. A potential Trump victory could mean a return to a more transactional, “America First” approach to the region, with a focus on expanding the Abraham Accords, taking a harder line on Iran, and potentially reducing America’s security commitments.

However, pledges made whilst campaigning can often differ once the candidate takes office.

“Regardless of which side wins the election, their actual policies will change over time, given the complex dynamics of the Middle East, and latest developments that they will face once in office,” Bickauskaite-Aleliune cautioned.

The coming months will be crucial in shaping not only the outcome of the US election but also the future of American engagement in the region.