As the 2024 US presidential race heats up, one key question looms large for America’s allies and rivals in the Middle East: what would a Kamala Harris presidency mean for the region?
According to geopolitical experts, the answer appears to be a mixed bag – a continuation of some Trump-era policies combined with a potentially tougher stance on Israel and a greater push to get the Middle East to “pick sides” in the intensifying US-China rivalry.
“She’s not a blank sheet of paper but pretty close to it. [This is an] opportunity for her to redefine America’s role given that she doesn’t have the deep relationships nor a long history like Obama,” said Morris Reid, a partner at the global strategy firm Actum who previously worked in the Clinton administration.
Reid told Arabian Business he believes Harris should take a “crawl, walk, run approach” – being patient and getting things “right instead [of] rushing and making a mistake.”
“She will be tougher on Bibi and will have more room to manoeuvre with the rest of the MENA leadership which should [be] seeking a fresh start.”
A ‘guessing game’ for the region
According to geopolitical strategist Abishur Prakash, founder of The Geopolitical Business Inc, a Harris presidency represents a “bit of a ‘guessing game’ for the Middle East (and the world), as her ideas, policies and outlook, are still largely unknown.”
But Nicolas Michelon, founder and CEO of Asia Intelligence Advisory, believes a Harris presidency would mean little change from the status quo.
“I think if we are going to be discussing any presidential candidate for that matter I would have given you the same answer if you had asked me about Trump,” Michelon said.
“Because we are talking about the US, I think we have to be very careful about making a distinction between the actual candidate and the fact that there is such a thing in the US such as counter powers and even this so-called deep state.”
According to Michelon, the US presidency is significantly constrained by “a lot of counter powers stemming from the US constitution” compared to more powerful executive systems like in France under de Gaulle.
“The President of the US is [still] the President of the US, but he or she has to deal with a House of Representatives and Senate and many other counter powers which means that they don’t have completely free hands in terms of policy,” he explained.
In Michelon’s view, this means a Harris presidency would offer “absolutely no change, no deviation from Biden’s presidency.”
“I don’t think it would be wise to expect anything different, it’s not because the woman has a different personal style from Biden that the policy would be different. And I would even argue that she would be completely at the mercy of those counter-powers and the deep state. I see in Kamala Harris absolutely no will and no capacity whatsoever to try and counter that inertia.”
According to Reid, Biden’s foreign policy was “in many ways” overtaken by ends outside of his control. “That should be a lesson and a guide for Harris to be much more engaging with both friends and foes. It’s a mistake to only engage with friends. She also needs to be highly visible,” he explained.
Pressure to pick sides
One area where Harris is likely to take a tougher stance, according to Prakash, is in pushing Middle Eastern nations to firmly align with the United States against its geopolitical rivals, particularly China.
“A Harris presidency is likely to pressure the entire Middle East to pick sides,” Prakash explained.
“Even those in the Middle East who resonated with Trump’s ‘America First’ approach might feel differently as Harris raises the heat on critical issues like defense or economy.”
This could create tensions, as some regional powers like the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been carefully balancing their relationships with the US and China in recent years. Harris may seek to force their hand, according to Prakash.
Michelon agreed that a Harris presidency would mean Middle Eastern countries “will have to continue trying to distance themselves from the US.”
“It would be very good news for China in a geopolitical sense because it would mean the likes of Saudi Arabia would probably continue to move closer towards BRICS, closer to the likes of China and Russia, definitely,” he added.
Shifting dynamics with Israel and Palestine
Another wild card is how Harris may approach the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, an area where she has expressed more sympathy for the Palestinian cause compared to Biden. However, experts say any significant shift in US policy is unlikely.
“While Harris might have a different outlook towards the war in Gaza as a nominee, once she steps into the Oval Office as president, it is a different set of calculations,” said Prakash.
Michelon is even more skeptical of any change, arguing that Harris’ support for Palestinian rights is more about domestic politics than a genuine policy shift.
“Her support for the Palestinian cause is one way of trying to aggregate more anti-republican, anti-white America voters around her,” Michelon said.
“When you look at who basically supports openly the Palestinian cause in the US, again, for better or for worse, I’m not discussing the morality of it, but when you look at who supports that cause, it’s the same people who supported the Black Lives Matter cause [among others] so there’s an aggregation of internal or external fights, not so much for the sake of that particular cause, just as a way of showing that we don’t belong to the same country as the other half of the country.”
In other words, Michelon believes Harris’ rhetorical support for Palestinian rights is more about domestic political calculation than a genuine shift in US foreign policy. He expects the US would continue its historic backing of Israel under a Harris administration.
Today @POTUS and I met with our national security team to discuss developments in the Middle East.
— Vice President Kamala Harris (@VP) August 5, 2024
Our commitment to the security of Israel is unwavering. As we prepare to support the defense of Israel against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups, we are also working to… pic.twitter.com/QO5TciMn8Q
Continuity and confrontation
Looking at Harris’ potential foreign policy approach more broadly, both Prakash and Michelon see a high degree of continuity with the Biden era – including an aggressive stance towards US rivals like China and Russia.
“The only topic where Democrats and Republicans see eye-to-eye is China,” said Prakash.
“The Trump tariffs were continued by Biden. And, whether it is restricting China’s access to American technology or supporting Taiwan’s sovereignty, both sides are on the same page.”
Michelon agreed, arguing that a Harris presidency would mean “status quo, continuation, inertia, more proxy wars” in the Middle East, as well as the continuation of Biden-era confrontation with China.
“I don’t see her as being willing or having any interest, I’m not even sure she has any ideas about this, any original ideas, to try and change foreign policy for the US,” Michelon said.
“So we can expect a complete continuation, what does that mean? More proxy wars, the continuing confrontation with Russia, Iran, Venezuela, China ofc, so more proxy wars a continuation of all of this.”
A contrast with Trump?
How would this differ from a potential second Trump term? The experts see some key distinctions.
Prakash noted that the “America First” approach of Trump’s first term would likely evolve in a second stint, as the global landscape has shifted dramatically. This could create new tensions with Middle Eastern allies seeking a fresh start under Harris.
Michelon, meanwhile, argues that Trump – for all his disruption – was more transparent and predictable than the Biden-Harris approach. This could make him a more attractive partner for some Middle Eastern leaders.
“If I’m Xi Jinping in Beijing, even if I’m Vladimir Putin in Moscow, or Modi in Delhi, I’d rather deal with Trump because we can expect what he’s going to do and he delivers on what he does. He doesn’t sugarcoat it,” Michelon said.
Overall, the picture painted by these experts is one of a Middle East caught in the middle of an intensifying US-China rivalry, with a Harris presidency likely offering more of the same rather than a dramatic shift. The region may long for the relative predictability of the Trump era – even as it grapples with the former president’s own disruptive tendencies.
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