Thousands of pagers used by the militant group Hezbollah exploded simultaneously on Tuesday, killing nine people and injuring nearly 2,800 others, in an unprecedented attack that sent shockwaves across Lebanon.
The incident, which Hezbollah has blamed on Israel, marks a significant escalation in the ongoing tensions between the two adversaries and potentially opens a new chapter in modern warfare, experts told Arabian Business.
“The Israel-Lebanon fight has not been one where technology was in the driver’s seat, compared to say the US-China fight. But what occurred with the pagers shows that technology is becoming the main vehicle for nations to achieve their geopolitical goals,” said Abishur Prakash, geopolitical strategist and founder of The Geopolitical Business Inc.
A sophisticated attack
The explosions affected pagers across Lebanon, including in the capital Beirut. Hezbollah, which relies heavily on these devices for communication due to their perceived resistance to hacking, confirmed that the pagers belonged to “employees of various Hezbollah units and institutions,” according to news reports.
Nicolas Michelon, CEO of Asia Intelligence Advisory and Editor of Asia Power Watch, described the attack as “another pandora’s box that has just been opened.”
“I’m not aware that in the war in Ukraine that either side targeted mobile phones to have them explode from a distance… so this is very interesting,” he added.
BREAKING: PAGER EXPLOSION IN DAMASCUS CAR LEAVES 4 INJURED, ONE SERIOUSLY
— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) September 17, 2024
A pager explosion inside a car on the Al-Mowasat Tunnel Road in Damascus has left 4 people injured, one seriously.
The detonation is similar to the pager explosions that happened across Lebanon pic.twitter.com/cHoeqxoGzY
The sophistication of the attack has left experts pondering its exact nature. Dr. Yannick Veilleux-Lepage, Assistant Professor at the Royal Military College of Canada, outlined two primary theories:
“The first theory suggests that the firmware on these pagers was modified to cause the batteries to overheat and explode. The second theory proposes that the devices were intercepted at some point in the supply chain, either during manufacturing or transit, and a small explosive device was inserted into them,” he told Arabian Business.
Dr. Veilleux-Lepage noted that both scenarios have precedents in previous Israeli operations, such as the 2010 Stuxnet incident or the 1996 assassination of Hamas bomb-maker Yahya Ayyash.
“Whether Israel installed tiny explosives into the pagers before they were shipped to Hezbollah or whether Israel used a sophisticated cyber attack that caused the pagers to overheat and explode, only time will tell. For Hezbollah, the irony is that it was using pagers because they were low-tech and the belief was that low-tech equaled less security concerns,” said Prakash.
Strategic implications
According to Michelon, the attack’s modus operandi appears to be aimed at incapacitating rather than killing.
“You don’t kill people by exploding a pager. A pager is not a mobile phone that you’re supposed to hold close to your head. It’s something you’re reading from a distance,” he explained.
This strategy, he said, served a dual purpose. “Military experts will tell you that an injured combatant consumes significantly more resources than a dead one,” he explained.
“If you have an injured fighter, you need doctors to take care of them, you need nurses, medical care, you need an entire logistics network.”
Moreover, the attack sends a potent message. “The message it sends is quite a potent one: we can reach you anywhere from a distance, it doesn’t even matter if you’re going low-tech,” said Michelon.
Prakash further elaborates on the strategic implications, stating that this has changed the dynamics by putting technology “in the driver’s seat” rather than air strikes or rocket barrages.
“It also means that as Israel conducts cyber operations against its enemies, it has to prepare for an equal response. This puts the ball in Iran’s court, as in the age of cyber warfare and tech-driven geopolitics, Tehran has to either back its proxy in the digital domain or help its proxy expand into the digital domain itself,” he added.
Escalation and retaliation
The timing of the attack is particularly significant, coming just hours after Israel’s security cabinet announced that stopping Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel to allow the safe return of displaced residents was now an official war goal.
Hezbollah has vowed retaliation, stating that it would get “just retribution” for what it called “this criminal aggression.” The group also said it would continue its “operations in support of Gaza,” referring to its ongoing exchanges of fire with Israel since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict on October 7.
“Geopolitically speaking of course it is a very worrying development because this operation yesterday, the scale of it and the modus operandi, will require Hezbollah to retaliate,” Michelon warned.
He also highlighted the involvement of Iran, noting that their ambassador to Lebanon was among those injured in the attack on Tuesday. “Remember when Israel targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus, there was a significant response by Iran,” Michelon said.
Prakash warned of the potential for broader conflict, calling it “the biggest concern and fear for the Middle East and the world.”
“While Hezbollah and Iran somehow paused in retaliating against Israel after the operations in Tehran and Beirut, what little restraint existed could be gone after the latest explosions in Lebanon. Add to this, the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon was injured, drawing Iran directly into the fight,” he explained.
According to him, Hezbollah “cannot afford to not respond.”
“This can’t be done through a one-off rocket barrage,” Prakash added. “The question in front of Hassan Nasrallah is whether he is willing to go to war with Israel. And if not, how far he is willing to push things. For now the ball is in Hezbollah’s court.”
A ‘new phase’ of conflict
Both experts agree that this attack represents a significant shift in the nature of warfare between state actors and non-state groups.
Dr. Veilleux-Lepage emphasised the technological implications. “The firmware attack would represent a technological feat, particularly as pagers are seen as rudimentary devices less vulnerable to cyber exploitation. The explosive device scenario, on the other hand, would involve a large-scale covert operation, requiring considerable resources, expertise, and human capital.”
Michelon framed the attack within the context of what he calls “unrestricted warfare,” a concept borrowed from Chinese military theorists.
“We are entering a very new phase of conflict here, a very new phase of warfare,” he said.
“We are looking at the very ugly face of asymmetric warfare between a sovereign state and a terrorist organisation or whatever you want to call it… a politically armed rebel group.”
“This asymmetric warfare is being fought increasingly in the context of what some Chinese authors have called unrestricted warfare, basically meaning warfare outside of the traditional bounds of the military,” he added.
Prakash echoed this sentiment by stating that “there is no longer a clear demarcation from where physical warfare ends and digital warfare begins,” as even the slightest reliance on tech, from digital communications to physical terminals, could result in geopolitical disruption.
“The drone war being waged in Ukraine; the deployment of AI in Gaza; the technology sanctions on China; all of these examples point to technology and geopolitics converging in unprecedented ways, taking flashpoints into uncharted territory,” he added.
The attack also raises significant questions about the security of supply chains and the role of technology companies in geopolitical conflicts.
“[Yesterday’s attack] should trigger a realisation by tech companies that they are being weaponised,” Michelon warned.
“This is something that I have been telling clients for the longest time that you are being weaponised at the very least because of the flag that flies over your headquarters, your supply chains are being weaponised.”
He urged tech companies to “rethink that how could we make our supply chains secure, resilient and actually safe for our clients.”
Prakash highlighted the acceleration of offensive cyber capabilities, warning that the world is inching at a faster pace towards “destabilising” cyber attacks being unleashed on societies – beyond exploding pagers or ransomware.
“What is occurring is a plateau in the physical domain, as to how far nations can go militarily. And this is pushing governments to begin looking at other fronts where they can take action, drawing in the cyber domain like never before,” Prakash added.
As the dust settles on this unprecedented attack, the international community watches with bated breath. The potential for escalation is high, and the implications for future conflicts are profound, the experts said.
“We are talking about financial means, information warfare, economic warfare and technological warfare here,” Michelon said.
In this new era of “unrestricted, asymmetric warfare,” the lines between civilian technology and military weaponry have become increasingly blurred, presenting new challenges for policymakers, military strategists, and technology companies alike.
“In the case of the Middle East, what makes a cyber conflict so dangerous is that there are no limits. It is simply a question of timing. If Israel or Iran want to, they can launch devastating cyber attacks on each other. There is no question of missile range, air defense systems, etc. The calculations are very different because what is required to launch a cyber attack is very different than what is required to launch a physical attack,” Prakash said.
As Lebanon grapples with the aftermath of the explosions and Hezbollah contemplates its response, the world is left to ponder: Is this the future of warfare, and if so, how can we prepare for it?
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