The market for potential public offerings of the UAE’s Etihad Airways and Dubizzle would be a complex set of circumstances, which would likely influence their listing decisions, according to market experts and analysts familiar with the matter.
The UAE’s national carrier Etihad Airways could raise around $1 billion, while online marketplace Dubizzle might target a valuation between $500 million and $1 billion, according to Al Ramz Capital research estimates.
Etihad Airways, which might become the first Gulf airline to go public, did not respond to Arabian Business‘ request for comment on its IPO preparations. In September, CEO Antonoaldo Neves told Reuters that while the airline has been working hard to be ready for an IPO, the decision would be for shareholder ADQ to make.
“The geopolitical and macro events have played their parts in the IPO performances, and so have other factors, such as the quality of disclosure, or technicalities and timing related to the deal structures,” Amer Halawi, Head of Research at Al Ramz Capital, told Arabian Business.
Dubizzle, which also did not respond to request for comment on its IPO plans, has undergone significant restructuring since rebranding from its former identity as Emerging Markets Property Group (EMPG) in 2023, according to Al Ramz Capital. The company raised $200 million in a funding round led by US-based Affinity Partners in 2022, achieving unicorn status with a valuation exceeding $1 billion.
Market performance context
The UAE’s IPO market presents a mixed picture for potential new listings. The country raised $6 billion (AED 22 billion) in IPO proceeds last year across seven flagship IPOs, matching the performance from 2023 but lagging the record achieved in 2022, according to Al Ramz Capital data. Key issuers Talabat and Lulu Group together accounted for approximately $3.7 billion of proceeds, representing nearly two-thirds of the total.
Recent listings have demonstrated the market’s volatility. Lulu started trading at its IPO subscription price of AED 2.04, subsequently dipping to AED 1.75, losing nearly 15 per cent from the IPO price, before recovering to AED 2.01. Similarly, Talabat opened 6.25 per cent above its subscription price but closed nearly 7 per cent below at AED 1.49, later recovering to AED 1.63, marginally above the IPO price of AED 1.60.
The shift toward digital-first businesses appears increasingly significant in the UAE’s IPO landscape.
“The rise of e-commerce, fintech, health-tech, and other online models has gained significant momentum in the Middle East, on the back of government diversification initiatives,” Halawi said.
“By leveraging asset-light structures, and with scalability and real-time data, these businesses have become highly attractive to both local and international investors.”
Market appetite
Institutional investors have shown strong appetite for UAE listings, with oversubscription rates averaging 62 times in recent offerings, according to Al Ramz Capital data.
The UAE’s IPO pipeline could include other significant potential listings alongside Etihad Airways and Dubizzle. Five Holdings (DFM) might raise up to $2 billion, while IT company Alpha Data could seek around $200 million.
“So far, the environment looks supportive from our perspective for 2025, but we are always on the watch for potentially negative changes such as market consolidations, policy changes, or interest-rate and foreign exchange movements,” Halawi added.
Market experts suggest strong domestic liquidity in secondary markets would be essential for these IPOs to succeed.
“While the UAE has diversified its economy, with non-oil activities contributing about 70 per cent to GDP, stable oil prices remain crucial for maintaining positive Gulf sentiment,” Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial, told Arabian Business in an interview earlier this month.
While institutional oversubscription rates averaging 62 times in the UAE indicate robust demand for new listings, experts emphasised that successful IPOs in 2025 would depend on multiple factors.
“A successful IPO needs a compelling equity story, first and foremost. Strong governance, an attractive valuation, and appropriate timing are additional factors which beautify the investment proposition,” Halawi said.
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