Gartner has forecast the worldwide shipments of total devices (PCs, tablets and mobile phones) to decline 4.4 percent in 2023 to 1.7 million units. In 2022, the devices shipment market declined 11.9 percent.
The IT research firm has forecast that phone shipments will slump to the lowest level in more than a decade – down four percent to 1.34 billion units in 2023, compared to 1.40 billion units in 2022, and 1.43 billion in 2021.
That would be down to the 2009 level, when Apple was trying to find its feet and companies like Blackberry and Nokia ruled the roost. The best year for mobile phone market was 2015 when shipments touched 1.9 billion units.
Gartner forecasts
Shipments of personal computers and mobile phones are expected to fall for the second straight year in 2023. The demand for smartphones and PCs initially rose during the pandemic, but started to weaken in the middle of the last year, impacted by inflation and fears of recession.
Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner, said the pandemic led to a fundamental change where people working from home didn’t feel the need to change phones frequently.
“Consumers are holding onto their phones longer than expected, from six to nine months, and moving away from fixed to flexible contracts in the absence of meaningful new technology,” he said.
Things seem to be improving slightly though. In the fourth quarter of 2022, worldwide PC shipments totaled 65.3 million units, a 28.5 percent decrease from the fourth quarter of 2021 – which was the largest quarterly shipment decline since Gartner started tracking the PC market in the mid-1990s.
| Device Type | 2022 Shipments | 2022 Growth (%) | 2023 Shipments | 2023 Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC | 287,159 | -16.0 | 267,676 | -6.8 |
| Tablet | 136,938 | -12.0 | 132,963 | -2.9 |
| Mobile Phone | 1,395,247 | -11.0 | 1,339,505 | -4.0 |
| Total Devices | 1,819,344 | -11.9 | 1,740,143 | -4.4 |
For 2022, PC shipments reached 286.2 million units, a 16.2 percent decrease from 2021.
Low PC supply caused by high demand and supply chain disruptions through 2021 quickly turned into an excess of supply once demand quickly and significantly slowed as people started going back to their offices once the pandemic subsided and cities started opening up.
The slump in the devices market will slow in 2023 on expectations of a less pessimistic economic outlook through the year and eventual rise in consumer and business spending.
“The depressed economic market will continue to dampen demand for devices throughout 2023. In fact, end-user spending on devices is projected to decline 5.1 percent in 2023,” said Atwal. “We do not expect relief from inflation and the bottom of the recession to occur until the fourth quarter of 2023.”
Lenovo, HP and Dell are the top three PC makers in the market. PC shipments will continue to record the worst decline of all devices segments in 2023 and vendors will reduce inventory levels. Gartner expect PC inventory levels will return to normal by the second half of 2023.
Tablets (both Android and iOS) was the most resilient category and is expected to fall 2.9 percent compared to 12 percent decline last year.
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