Airlines in the Middle East are set to experience a shortage of pilots in the next ten years, as air travel demand continues to recover from a pandemic-induced slowdown.
Globally, the aviation sector will be short by 80,000 pilots by 2032, according to consulting firm Oliver Wyman, adding the Middle East could be one of the first regions to be affected.
“We expect the Middle East to be the region affected soonest by the shortage outside of North America, driven by a projected sharp increase in air travel demand over the next few years, new players entering the market and big tourism developments happening in the region,” Andre Martins, a partner at the New York-based consulting firm, said.
Regional shortage could start as early as the end of 2022, reaching 3,000 pilots by next year. If left unsolved, Middle East airlines could be short of 18,000 pilots in the next ten years.
Passenger volume in the region could reach 98 percent of 2019 levels by 2024, before it exceeds pre-pandemic figures by 2025, according to the International Air Travel Association.
This upward trajectory could put pressure on the Middle East’s airline manpower, which has recently been impacted by Covid-related layoffs, lower number of newly-certified pilots, and retirements.
Airlines need to accelerate recruitment efforts to keep up with rising air travel demand, and Martins said they could look to recruit from regions “where we anticipate less acute shortages, particularly Latin America and Asia Pacific.”
“Failing that, we may see adjustment of schedules into and out of the region, impacting the Middle East’s carriers and airport operators,” he added.
Dubai carrier Emirates earlier this month kickstarted a pilot recruitment roadshow in the UK, as it ramps up its pandemic exit strategy.
The airline is capitalising on UAE’s income tax-free environment to lure potential hires – as well as a generous package that includes travel benefits for the candidates’ families.
Passenger traffic at the Dubai International Airport (DXB), where Emirates operates from, hit 27.9 million in the first six months of the year – or 161.9 percent rise from the same period in 2021.
This could balloon up to 62.4 million by the end of 2022 – averaging 5.6 million passengers every month, DXB’s operator Dubai Airports said.
“We knew at the start of the pandemic that the dramatic downturn would be followed by an equally dramatic upturn,” its chief executive officer Paul Griffiths said at the time.
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