What are the three most important trends that will mark mobility until 2030?
Any crisis is a catalyst that accelerates established transitions. Among the many examples supporting this thesis there are a few that stick out, such as the energy transition and, in particular, the shift towards plug-in cars away from combustion engines. Here are three trends that stand out:
Commuting as we know it
Very soon mobility will most likely look and feel like before the pandemic. There is no other option than learning to live with the virus and its after-effects and it’s all about finding out what works for you.
Trends in mobility are largely driven by the economy, and in part thanks to stimulus packages by various governments will support economic recovery thereby leading to growing employment rates increasing the need to commute. Another aspect having an impact on the trend is our longing for social interaction as well as travelling. Public transport will be used again and we will be back on airplanes in no time.
Welcome to the decade of the electric car
The developments in the past months, confirm our view that the era of electric mobility is about to take off this decade. Automakers had prepared many new model launches and governments accelerate the transition by setting emission limits and supporting electric cars, both as part of the efforts to mitigate climate change and support cleaner mobility.
Plug-ins now account for roughly 20 percent of new cars in Europe, and roughly 9 percent in China. With the new government, the United States will likely move in a similar direction. You have several other countries including the UK announcing their mobility goals for the decade. More importantly, we should not underestimate how quickly technology evolves. Several automakers are showing a credible journey towards offering economic, long-range and clean electric vehicles before 2030.
The charging networks grows by the day, plugs at home and at work are ever more common, and fast charging alongside routes becomes ever faster.
Evolution of automation
Third, towards 2030, we will have a better understanding of how automation can truly revolutionalise mobility. Automation can make life a lot easier for many of us and hopping into a taxi without a driver, or having the groceries delivered front door autonomously, has already become a reality for some.Therefore, there is great business potential in the concept and it offers the means for cities to ease congestion and increase quality of life. By the end of the decade we will have more clarity where this journey goes.
The pandemic has changed the way we interact and talk to our clients and colleagues. It has ushered in the era of video conferencing. Is this the end of business travel?
FOMO is surely stronger than Flygskam. So my answer is NO. However, business travel is one area where we could see a meaningful impact in terms of change in mobility habits. The pandemic forced businesses into incorporating online tools into work, and it forced clients and employees to learn to use them to their benefits as there was no other alternative.
Many companies realised that there was no feared productivity loss or that meaningful cost savings were achieved. We still need physical meetings, they are simply much more convenient to get in touch, build trust.
The future will likely see us striking the balance between both worlds, and this balance is one when things are back to normal , we will travel much less for business reasons. However, flying in general will soon be back to pre-crisis levels. Leisure already accounted for more trips than business before the crisis and will compensate the business shortfall swiftly.
Do you think we’ve reached the oil peak demand and will it ever return to pre-pandemic levels?
With mobility representing the lion’s share of oil demand, we also see a peak in global oil demand as very likely before 2030. The next two to three years will be all about the economic recovery and will lead to world oil demand likely reaching new highs, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Then, the transition to electric cars will eventually show up and should pressure oil use first in Europe, followed by China and the United States, and then globally.
Thanks to how swiftly electric cars are evolving, road transport is on track for net zero levels. This visibility on a key contributor to climate change is one of the reasons we hear more net zero pledges recently. But this transition will cause significant tremors beyond the auto and oil business as it causes a power shift geopolitically, a loss of relevance for the petro-nations.
Regional trends
Gulf countries are adopting sustainable strategies to boost their economies
Regis Burger, Head of Middle East and Africa at Julius Baer
Sustainability has gone beyond being just a buzz word in the region and in its own way the Middle East is adapting to this trend.
Dubai’s recent announcement of its 2040 Urban Master Plan with its focus on sustainable and flexible means of mobility to foster economic activity is just one of the recent examples showing the region’s commitments towards creating circular economies.
On the client front, we see an increasing interest in exploring investment options surrounding smart mobility and clean energy. Through our next generation investment philosophy, which looks at capturing mega trends, we continue to introduce clients to concepts that will impact the way we live tomorrow.
Julius Baer has been a proponent of Smart mobility way before it became a mainstream discussion point. I am particularly proud of our founding partnership with FIA Formula E World Championship which is an investment in to our society’s future.
Our partnership with Formula E is a strong example of where we have forged a link between assets on the one hand and the worlds of science and business on the other.
The end result is a great platform that helps us create and engage in a dialogue on subjects of innovation in transportation, energy transition, smart cities, sustainability and forward-looking investment trends.
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