As the UK tentatively emerges from lockdown, the country could resume global flights as early as May 17, but whether the UAE will be taken off Britain’s travel ‘red list’ remains to be seen.
The UK is set to announce a report from its Global Travel Taskforce on April 12, which could reveal a roadmap for post-pandemic travel. But as parts of Europe continue to reel from rising Covid-19 cases, experts say the British government may yet err on the side of caution.
The taskforce is considering a ‘traffic light system’, labelling countries as green (no restrictions), amber (open, but with quarantine and test requirements) and red (banned entirely, or hotel quarantine on return), according to reports.
Currently, non-resident arrivals to the UK from 36 countries – including the UAE – are required to travel straight to a government-mandated hotel for 10 days at a cost of GBP1,750 per adult.
“Given the abject vaccination rollout across Europe – in contrast to the UK, UAE and US – the promise of international travel from May 17 seems to be a fading hope,” said Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at UK-based StrategicAero Research.
Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at UK-based StrategicAero Research
“It’s likely that the Britain will only consider re-opening the popular UK–UAE air corridor when there is a significant fall in infection rates in the Emirates,” he said, adding that without “most countries” upping vaccination programmes and quashing infection rates, destinations that UK passengers can travel to will remain extremely limited.
World-class vaccine rollout
Olivier Ponti, VP insights at Spanish aviation analytics firm ForwardKeys, said the UAE and the UK are “world-class” in the speed of their respective vaccine rollouts. “This is likely to make each market comparatively more attractive to the other as a destination and as a source market – and to cause the traffic between the two to revive more rapidly than on most other routes,” he said.
According to a World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) spokesperson: “When the UAE is removed from the red list there will be a strong pent-up demand for both business and leisure travel. Britain will be coming out of a very strict and long lockdown so people will be itching to travel again.”
“Consumer confidence to travel will return,” the global tourism body added. “We have consistently argued that international travel can safely resume with a comprehensive, coordinated international regime for testing upon departure and arrival for travellers.”
The international travel sector suffered historic losses of almost $4.5 trillion last year, according to WTTC’s recent Economic Impact Report.
WTTC is urging governments around the world to provide a “clear and decisive roadmap”, allowing businesses time to ramp up their operations in order to recover from the pandemic.
UK–UAE red list removal?
According to a UK government spokesperson, Britain’s travel red list is informed by “a range of factors”, including weekly case rates weighted against trends in vaccinations, incidence and deaths.
Ponti said the removal of the UAE from the red list would ultimately be a “political” decision.
Olivier Ponti, VP insights at British aviation analytics firm ForwardKeys
“If, by chance, travel to mainstream European destinations was off-limits to British travellers this autumn, but the UAE happened to be open, I would expect an extraordinary surge. However, that is highly speculative,” the expert said.
In the first half of November 2020, when the UAE was briefly added to Britain’s list of quarantine-free countries, flight bookings from the UK to Dubai rose to over 50 percent of the levels in the equivalent period in 2019, according to ForwardKeys data.
“We expect business travel to rebound later than leisure travel because there are more factors to consider than the hunger for a holiday, such as diminished travel budgets and insurance issues,” said Ponti.
Strong leisure demand
John Grant, partner at UK-based aviation analysis company Midas Aviation, said he expects the UK–UAE leisure travel market to be “pretty strong” once the red list ruling is lifted.
John Grant, partner at UK-based aviation analysis company Midas Aviation
“It all depends when the [red list] decision is made. If the UK-UAE travel corridor is opened in the summer months, the Middle East and the UAE may be too hot,” Grant said. “There are places in Europe that will be slightly cheaper and could offer a better climate.”
However, he said the UK-UAE air route – the world’s busiest in 2019 – is well-placed to take advantage of pent-up demand as soon as it arises.
“There is lots of scope for the market to respond quickly. Prices will be competitive and airfares will be fairly cheap,” Grant said.
Bleak business travel outlook
The Midas Aviation expert said the outlook for UK-UAE business travel in 2021 remains bleak.
“Corporate demand will be extremely soft and will not return quickly. Companies that have saved millions on business travel with video conferencing will be reluctant to burn cash unless it is absolutely business critical,” Grant said, adding that the global meetings (MICE) market could take “two or three years” to fully recover.
A full recovery of the Dubai-London Heathrow air route, which saw a whopping 190,365 seats booked during the first week of January 2020, would depend on whether there is a consistent global recovery from the pandemic or a stop-and-start process, Grant said.
“With a clean run, it’s probably an 18-month period but an intermittent recovery could stretch to 2.5 years,” he said. “I don’t see a return to 2019 levels until 2024 at the very earliest. And the UAE will be as much affected as the rest of the world.”
Travel pass?
Emirates and Etihad Airways recently partnered with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) to become among the first airlines in the world to trial a new app to help passengers manage their travel amid ongoing Covid-19 restrictions.
The IATA Travel Pass enables passengers to create a ‘digital passport’ to verify their pre-travel test or vaccination meets the requirements of the destination.
According to a recent survey by UK travel company Halal Booking, most customers who declined to travel in 2020 did so because they were concerned about the inconvenience of ever-changing regulations.
“A primary factor influencing travel is likely to be the removal of quarantine, along with the availability of cheap or free and rapid PCR tests at airports,” said Ufuk Seçgin, the company’s chief marketing officer.
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