Dubai International Airport was heading down the runway towards another record year in the first quarter of 2020, with the opening three months witnessing some 17.8 million passengers passing through the international hub.
Despite geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US, fluctuating oil prices and Australian bush fires, travel was continuing relatively as normal – the taxi ranks were full, check-in desks busy and bustling, duty free tills ringing off the hook and flights departing and arriving on a minute-by-minute basis.
However, there was turbulence on the horizon in the shape of a deadly virus that had been afflicting the Chinese city of Wuhan since December 2019, and was gradually moving across the globe.
That was soon to send the world, and in this case the aviation industry, into complete freefall as countries literally shut down, borders were closed by many nations and, in terms of Dubai and the wider UAE, its airports fell almost into complete silence.
On March 25, 2020, the simple act of flying, the journey through an airport to a departure lounge and showing your passport before jumping on an airplane, had completed its final journey.
“Aviation, as we knew it in 2019, is dead and isn’t coming back. Ever,” Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at UK-based StrategicAero Research, told Arabian Business.
A year on from the momentous decision by the UAE to ground flights, however, and the appetite to return to the skies has not been diminished, neither by the passing of time nor the pandemic.
According to a recent Travel Insights Report from Dubai-based OTA platform Cleartrip, almost three-quarters of people in the UAE and Saudi Arabia are ready to travel in the next six months.
John Grant, partner at UK-based Midas Aviation consultancy, told Arabian Business: “I would expect to see a Mexican Wave of demand in the initial reopening and then a steady return to normal levels, particularly in the leisure segments, but it will still take a long time for a full recovery.”
John Grant, partner at UK-based Midas Aviation Consultancy
Emirates and Etihad Airways have partnered with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) to become among the first airlines in the world to trial a new app to help passengers manage their travel amid ongoing Covid-19 restrictions.
The IATA Travel Pass enables passengers to create a ‘digital passport’ to verify their pre-travel test or vaccination meets the requirements of the destination.
This, alongside the success of the UAE’s vaccination programme – more than 7.5 million vaccines have been administered across the country – has fuelled regional optimism over a quick recovery for the industry.
Indeed, Paul Griffiths, CEO of Dubai Airports, was bullish about future prospects. Speaking at the recent Dubai Global Events Re-opening Forum, he said: “I think there is some very strong indications over the next few weeks that things will move very quickly. We may have seen that we’ve stayed in this rather static position for a long time, but I’m getting the impression now that the progress we’re making with vaccinations here in the UAE, the progress that’s being made in the United States, in Israel and the UK gives us hope that life will start to resume some sort of normality.
Paul Griffiths, CEO of Dubai Airports
“And I think it will be a bit like a breaking down, and as soon as it’s safe to travel and regain that social and economic mobility that we’ve all missed for so long, it will be like a torrent. There won’t be a gradual return, there will be a flood as 4 billion people globally have been in some sort of lockdown over the last 12 months.
“We’re braced for a very strong return and I’d be very grateful for the strength of leadership and collaboration across the sector that has taken place to weather the pandemic probably better than any other nation.”
Linus Bauer, founder and managing director of Bauer Aviation Advisory, told Arabian Business that the rollout of Covid-19 vaccinations will free up air travel once again.
Linus Bauer, founder and managing director of Bauer Aviation Advisory
He said: “In several parts of the world, including the Middle East, the confidence and motivation to travel by airplane has been out there already. With the rollout of vaccines globally, airlines need to move from defence to offence.”
While repatriation flights offered some small crumb of comfort for the industry, it was the ability of carriers to switch from passenger operations to cargo transportation that threw a lifeline to many.
Emirates Airline president, Sir Tim Clark, admitted in June last year that the Dubai-based carrier’s increase cargo operations during the global pandemic, “kept the wolf from the cash door”.
Sir Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airline
Clark revealed that the company had been using 85 of the 777-300 ER, which are essentially passenger aircraft, but have a large cargo door at the back of the aircraft with the ability to fit in 14 palettes in the hold below decks – around 40 tonnes. They also took seats out and filled up the hat racks.
Emirates was also using 11 freighters, utilising 96 in total of the 153, 777 aircraft in its fleet, while its A380 fleet – all 115 aircraft – lay dormant on the tarmac.
Ahmad said: “Staying afloat has been hard, but Emirates’ cargo operations highlight just how adept the airline has been and continues to be during this pandemic.”
Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at UK-based StrategicAero Research
And so, after a strict period of lockdown, Dubai reopened its runways to international travel in the first week of June and has continued to weather the storm of border closures and increased infection numbers ever since, transferring passengers to their chosen destinations.
However, this has been done with health and safety at the front and centre of everything.
Emirates was among the first airlines to implement bio-safety procedures upon the resumption of flights in May including the distribution of hygiene kits on-board and personal protective equipment for cabin crew and airport employees in customer facing roles. It was also among the first airlines to provide free PCR tests for incoming travellers in the airport itself.
“In terms of our products and services, what we have done is we fast tracked some of the projects we had to make travel more efficient, safe and contactless like the biometrics, the baggage drop-offs and the check-in kiosks that we have in the airports,” said Mohammed Al Hashimi, vice president Commercial Products Dubai, Emirates Airline.
Mohammed Al Hashimi, vice president Commercial Products Dubai, Emirates Airline
The recovery, however, is a gradual process and the Middle East overall performed much worse than any other region in 2020, with its international passenger traffic plunging 72.9 percent, while passenger capacity dropped 63.9 percent.
According to Grant, capacity this week from the Middle East region is at 45 percent of pre-Covid levels, with the global figure up in the region of 56 percent.
He told Arabian Business: “The Middle East is behind the average and much of that is based around major connecting markets such as Western Europe and South East Asia/Australisia being badly impacted by various lockdowns and travel restrictions etc.
“Emirates’ dilemma is its high dependency on connecting traffic in general and the size of its fleets. Other carriers in the region have had smaller aircraft available allowing them to right size and capacity to demand and that makes a huge difference in these times.
“I checked today and some 109 aircraft are still classified as inactive for the airline, which is about 40 percent of their fleet, although to be fair it is a similar proportion for Etihad.”
And despite the green shoots of recovery, airlines in the Middle East will continue to burn through cash, according to IATA, with estimated losses in the industry previously forecast to reach $3.3 billion this year.
Muhammad Ali Albakri, IATA regional vice president for Africa and the Middle East
The projected losses in 2021 will be nearly half last year’s revenue drop of $7.1bn, which is still a “worrisome” picture for a region that is largely dependent on revenues from the tourism and air transport sectors, which both contribute $13bn to the gross domestic product (GDP) and support 3.4 million jobs, said Muhammad Ali Albakri, IATA regional vice president for Africa and the Middle East.
And John Strickland, director, JLS Consulting, told Arabian Business the scars of the coronavirus pandemic would be around a long time after any recovery.
John Strickland, director, JLS Consulting
He said: “The will be an enormous debt load for many companies for years ahead.”
There is, however, good news for passengers, according to Ahmad. He said: “The day that allows freer travel with minimal restrictions, airlines, airports, hotels, resorts and tour operators will literally kill eachother on pricing to entice people back. To that end, consumers will have a wonderful opportunity to leverage much cheaper fares all round.”
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